First-Term Spending: How Much Debt Did Trump Add?

When Donald Trump campaigned for president in 2016, he promised to eliminate the national debt within eight years. By the time he left office, however, the national debt had increased substantially, growing from $19.95 trillion to $27.75 trillion—a $7.8 trillion rise. This surge includes $7.2 trillion in public debt, the more economically significant measure. While some of this increase stemmed from pre-existing trends and the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump’s policies and legislative decisions were responsible for a significant share.

A better measure of Trump’s fiscal impact is the ten-year debt impact of the legislation and executive actions he signed into law. Estimates from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget show these decisions added $8.4 trillion to the national debt over a decade. This total includes $7.3 trillion in primary deficits (spending minus revenue, excluding interest) and $1 trillion in associated interest costs.

While some of Trump’s budgets proposed deficit-reduction measures, Congress failed to enact most of these savings into law. Thus, Trump’s tenure was marked by significant borrowing, driven by both crisis response and deliberate policy choices.

The Breakdown of Debt Additions

1. COVID-19 Relief: $3.6 trillion
   The largest single driver of debt under Trump was the emergency relief measures taken in response to the pandemic. Key initiatives included:
   • The CARES Act ($1.9 trillion), which provided direct stimulus payments, expanded unemployment benefits, and aid to small businesses.
   • Additional pandemic relief legislation, totaling nearly $1.7 trillion, to support the U.S. economy through stimulus checks, healthcare funding, and other programs.
2. Tax Cuts: $2.5 trillion
   The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), Trump’s signature economic policy, reduced corporate and individual tax rates, at a projected cost of $1.9 trillion over ten years. The legislation aimed to spur economic growth but significantly increased deficits as revenue fell short of covering expenditures. The tax cuts were proven to be helpful with increasing economic growth, however, there were no cuts in the size of government. 
3. Discretionary Spending Increases: $2.3 trillion
   Bipartisan budget agreements in 2018 and 2019 added $2.1 trillion in debt by raising discretionary spending caps for defense and non-defense programs. Additional legislative actions, including the 2020 Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, repealed Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes and added another $500 billion in borrowing.
4. Executive Actions: Minimal Net Impact
   Trump’s unilateral policies had a mixed fiscal effect. His expansion of tariffs generated $445 billion over ten years, offsetting costs from other executive actions such as the repeal of ACA cost-sharing reductions and a prescription drug rebate rule.

The Case for Reform in a Second Term

With the national debt exceeding $33 trillion in 2024, Trump’s second term must focus on fiscal discipline. Central to this effort should be the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a proposed initiative designed to modernize federal operations, cut waste, and ensure taxpayer dollars are spent effectively.

1. Empowering DOGE to Identify Waste
   Trump’s second term should prioritize the establishment and full empowerment of DOGE. This department could lead audits of federal agencies, review contracts, and eliminate redundancies. A focus on streamlining operations and leveraging data analytics could uncover billions in savings.
2. Reforming Entitlements and Discretionary Spending
   Programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are the largest drivers of long-term federal debt. While politically contentious, reforms could focus on preventing fraud, increasing efficiency, and introducing sustainable funding mechanisms. 
3. Restoring Accountability with Budget Caps
   A return to statutory budget caps, paired with a renewed emphasis on “pay-as-you-go” legislation, would help prevent unchecked spending. Trump could work with Congress to revive budget discipline, ensuring new initiatives are funded responsibly.
4. Reassessing Emergency Spending Protocols
   The pandemic highlighted weaknesses in emergency relief systems. Trump’s administration can create frameworks for future crises, ensuring relief efforts are swift but fiscally responsible.
5. Leveraging Technology for Efficiency
   Through initiatives like DOGE, Trump can champion the use of digital platforms to modernize government operations, from reducing procurement costs to improving transparency in public spending.

The Stakes for Trump’s Legacy

Trump’s first term highlighted his ability to prioritize economic growth and national security, but it also revealed a need for greater fiscal responsibility. A second term offers the chance to address this shortcoming and leave a legacy of financial stewardship. By cutting waste, reforming entitlement programs, and empowering DOGE to overhaul federal operations, Trump could demonstrate his commitment to safeguarding America’s economic future.

The challenge is significant, but so is the opportunity. With strong leadership and a clear focus on fiscal reform, Trump could pivot from the high-spending trajectory of his first term and position himself as the president who tackled America’s debt crisis head-on.