The 2024 presidential election offers one of the most striking and evolving trends in American politics: the “diploma divide.” This growing gap in political preferences between college-educated and non-college-educated voters has become a defining fault line in the nation’s electoral landscape. The media has talked a great deal about it since Trump ran in 2016, but the reality is that it is growing and shows no sign of stopping.
Non-college-educated voters played a pivotal role in delivering a strong advantage to Donald Trump. Across all racial demographics, these voters shifted significantly toward the Republican Party, with Trump gaining a remarkable 16-point lead among them—an increase from his 2-point margin in the 2020 election. This shift signals not just a consolidation of Trump’s support base but also a broader realignment of political loyalties among working-class Americans who resonate with his populist messaging on jobs, trade, immigration, and cultural values.
On the other hand, college-educated voters moved further away from Trump, favoring the Democratic Party by a 15-point margin. This marks a slight but notable increase from the 12-point advantage Democrats held among this group in 2020. The preference for Democratic candidates among college-educated voters highlights a growing association between higher education levels and progressive stances on issues such as climate change, social justice, and international cooperation.
This educational divide is more than a statistical observation; it reflects deeper cultural and economic tensions. Non-college-educated voters often express disillusionment with elite institutions and globalization, aligning themselves with Trump’s calls for “America First” policies. Meanwhile, college-educated voters are increasingly drawn to candidates who emphasize expertise, climate change, diversity, and equity.
The “diploma divide” is not just a feature of American elections—it is a lens through which to understand the nation’s broader societal divisions. As both parties strategize for future elections, bridging this gap will be critical. For Republicans, the challenge lies in expanding their appeal to college-educated voters without alienating their working-class base. For Democrats, the focus will be on regaining trust among non-college-educated voters who feel left behind by the political establishment.
Democrats face a particularly troubling challenge in Midwest swing states, where the population includes a higher proportion of non-college-educated voters compared to states where Democrats traditionally perform well. States like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which are crucial battlegrounds in presidential elections, are home to large working-class communities that have increasingly gravitated toward Republican candidates. Unlike the coastal states or urban centers where Democrats dominate with college-educated voters, the Midwest’s political landscape is shaped by economic concerns, cultural values, and skepticism toward elites—factors that align closely with Republican messaging. This trend leaves Democrats vulnerable, as their reliance on college-educated voters may not be enough to offset losses among the non-college-educated electorate in these key states. As the 2024 election demonstrated, the “diploma divide” could further entrench Republican dominance in the region, making it critical for Democrats to reconnect with working-class voters to remain competitive in the heartland.
The 2024 election may have solidified the diploma divide, but its implications will continue to shape the political landscape for years to come.